Taking a long look at short supplies
Energy use on farms isn't a new topic for the
Leopold Center. Although higher energy costs indicate a current
crisis, there may be even more dramatic effects in the years
ahead.
As we all know, modern industrial agriculture
has achieved much of its success by replacing labor with energy
and capital. This strategy worked remarkably well because we had
ample supplies of cheap energy. However, agriculture's heavy
reliance on petroleum as the primary source of energy is
catching up with us.
The "petroleum era," as some geologists call
it, is rapidly coming to a close. Being part of this era
sometimes blinds us to how brief this period is compared to the
rest of human civilization. The first American commercial oil
well was drilled in 1859 in Titusville, Pennsylvania. According
to an essay in the March 1999 issue of Scientific American
by oil industry analysts Colin Campbell and Jean Laherrere, we
have about eight years of "cheap oil" left. Recent increases in
prices for diesel fuel, anhydrous ammonia and pesticides—all
petroleum-dependent products—indicate that their prediction may
be correct.
Campbell and Laherrere remind us that the
problem is not that we will run out of oil anytime soon. Rather,
our ability to acquire oil "cheaply" will end. They attribute
the end of the "cheap oil" era to a combination of increasing
demand and the fact that the "last bucket of oil" cannot be
pumped from the ground as quickly as the first. They explain
that the rate at which any well (or country) can produce oil
"always rises to a maximum and then, when about half the oil is
gone, begins falling back to zero." We are now on the other side
of the "half-gone" oil.
We're faced with a conundrum: If we don't
reduce our reliance on oil to the same extent that our capacity
to produce it slows, oil prices will necessarily rise. What's a
farmer to do?
Some farmers, especially those producing corn,
hope that biofuels have a bright future, both as a new source of
cheap energy and as a new source of revenue. (In our most recent
newsletter, we told you about burning switchgrass for fuel.)
However, studies to assess the potential of various biofuel
systems to meet all future energy needs yield mixed conclusions.
Researchers Giampietro, Ulgiati and Pimentel report in
Bioscience magazine, "large-scale biofuel production is not
an alternative to the current use of oil and is not even an
advisable option to cover a significant fraction of it."
I'm not suggesting that biofuels have no
future. It may be that small-scale, on-farm biodiesel units and
properly managed ethanol plants can fill some of our needs, at
least while we move from petroleum to some other energy source.
Biofuels, however, probably will not be the silver bullet that
saves farmers from the coming energy crisis. Producing crops to
burn for fuel also raises the troublesome prospect of diverting
farmland to energy production, just as demographers warn us that
we may not have sufficient land to produce enough food for an
expanding population.
Energy conservation may be one fruitful avenue
for farmers to pursue in the immediate future. We all learned
that we could dramatically reduce our energy use during the
energy crisis of the 1970s. This strategy, more than anything,
helped us survive temporary energy shortages. Of course, farmers
can't just shut down their tractors. But we can reduce tillage,
judiciously use petroleum-based inputs and adopt better
management practices to decrease purchased inputs.
A 1993 North Dakota State University study
comparing the performance of conventional, no-till and organic
farms offered some interesting conclusions. It showed that when
total energy flows were considered, no-till farms consumed 30
percent less energy than their conventional counterparts.
Organic farms consumed 70 percent less energy than conventional
farms, and yields were comparable for all three farms. No-till
and organic management may not be for everyone, but this study
supports the idea that farmers may be able to adopt practices
that can curtail energy costs, conserve soil and water, and
still produce optimum yields.
Midterm energy solutions will likely include a
combination of energy conservation, new technologies and more
diversified energy sources. These would include wind, solar,
biofuels, hydro-electric, hydrogen, coal and natural gas.
Over the long haul, we need to develop
technologies and systems that enable us to eliminate energy
waste and use entirely "current" energy. Use of "borrowed"
energy—solar energy that has been stored in the form of oil,
coal and gas—must end.
Our food systems also must become more energy
efficient. Four percent of our national energy budget is used to
grow food, while 10 to 13 percent is required to put it on our
plates. As energy costs go up, regional food systems will have a
distinct competitive advantage.
Meanwhile, don't bet the farm on the price of
diesel fuel going down anytime soon.
- Fred Kirschenmann
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